This third-party market idea needs "Engineers [who] modify the climate to profit between what is forecast, what is desired, and what can be altered using aerosols, space shades, etc." This doesn't sound at all realistic for engineer participants to practically accomplish given current technology.
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Weather futures market for forecasting, insurance, and climate engineering.
Not fundedImpact certificate
$0raised
$10,000valuation
Longer description of your proposed project
The trusted third party to settle weather futures.
Three market participants: forecast, desire, and engineer.
Forecasters are data scientists, market makers, etc. Their forecasts model the value of desirer's contracts.
Desirers are agriculture, tourism, insurance, sea-level communities, etc. They create contracts for their desired weather, temperature, rain, wind speeds, time frame, etc.
Engineers modify the climate to profit between what is forecast, what is desired, and what can be altered using aerosols, space shades, etc.
This could be a non-profit, where surpluses are rolled into incentivizing the market's robustness: diverse engineering efforts, market making, and reaching desirers.
Describe why you think you're qualified to work on this
2010 B.S. Computer Engineering. Embedded software on medical devices (mobile vital signs, wearable cardioverter, a patent on dysrhythmia classification) and consumer electronics (Fitbit). Past 5 years in autonomous vehicles, safety critical designs and implementation, controls, and systems software. Piecewise participation in companies from Series-A 10-headcount to public company 1000-headcount.
Physics minor focused on solid state systems, but the mindset carries through. This is a series of experiments, mutation and selection, and we need a market to unite the knowledge of forecasters, with the needs of desirers, and effects of engineers.
Other ways I can learn about you
I keep my internet exposure to a minimum. This project won't be popular. I'm happy to meet in person in the Bay Area.
How much money do you need?
I'm the prime breadwinner with two pre-school babies, but we are improving our efficiency. $1 - $10K gets "this is a good idea, please be motivated to build anything". $50K gets a year of night work, average 1hr/day, likely enough to start a simple market and blog. $100K gets parttime effort, I'll step back at work. $250K gets full time building and growth.
Links to any supporting documents or information
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2012.0086
Estimate your probability of succeeding if you get the amount of money you asked for
50% :)
homogenitus
8 months ago
@Jason the market creates an incentive for their efforts, and to find the first points of profit.