This seems like a relatively long shot to specifically have an impact, but the impact would be very large if it does. This issue seems like something with a very high ratio of "potential impact" to "number of people currently thinking about it," so anything that increases the number of people thinking about it seems like it could be very useful.
5
Quantifying the costs of the Jones Act
Not fundedImpact certificate
$0raised
$10,000valuation
Project Description
Balsa Research is funding an individual economist or a team to conduct a counterfactual analysis assessing the economic impact if the Jones Act (Section 27 of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920) was repealed, to be published in a top economics journal.
We’re looking to to better understand the potential cost implications on domestic shipping and the broader implications for the US economy as a whole.
We’ve already secured core funding for this project, and the RFA for the project is available at https://www.balsaresearch.com/jones-act-rfa.
About Us
Balsa Research is an experimental research 501(c)(3) nonprofit run by Zvi Mowshowitz. Our goal is to lay the groundwork necessary to help make impactful policy changes for human flourishing. We are practical and interested in doing what works, in the most straightforward and direct way possible, and currently we’re noticing a dearth of robust research in some policy areas we care about.
Funding
We've secured the core funding amount necessary to fund a single academic plus the overhead to administer and manage this RFA. For a full lab (one professor plus research assistants), we estimate that the cost would be $10,000 to 100,000 more than our current funding amount. With additional funding, we can explore the full lab model, leading to richer and more in-depth analysis.
Funding this impact certificate will enable us to throw more money at studying the Jones Act, a piece of legislation that's been in place for a long time and has had a very large and diffuse impact on the US Economy.
Other supporting documents or information
Estimate your probability of succeeding if you get the amount of money you asked for
85%.
Potential failure conditions:
We are unable to find an economist willing to do the research required (low risk)
The final research product does not meet our expectations for quality (low risk)
We are unable to get the finished paper published in any reputable journal (medium risk)
Andreas Z.
8 months ago
Maybe I’m a sucker for doing such research. The impact of a repeal could easily be billions. Of course, a single paper will not achieve this but it could start something. The protectionist aspects around the Jones Act make it plausible to me that funding through “normal science grants” might not happen, so this could fill an important gap.
🐞
Alyssa Riceman
8 months ago
According to Wikipedia, "Many economists and other experts have argued for [the Jones act's] repeal". What have the analyses in those economists' arguments been like, historically, and what advantages are you expecting your analysis to have over them?
Jason
8 months ago
I think it is likely that the ability and prestige of the chosen academic will be rather cruxy here (prestige often being important to getting published in a higher-tier journal & getting people to even read the work). For those of us who don't regularly go shopping for academics to draft papers, is there any way to predict those qualities in the likely author?
Chris Lakin
8 months ago
I offered $500 (via manifund microregrant budget) at $10k valuation. Would be willing to do higher valuation too
Austin Chen
9 months ago
I like this project because the folks involved are great. Zvi is famous enough to almost not need introduction, but in case you do: he's a widely read blogger whose coverage of AI is the best in the field; also a former Magic: the Gathering pro and Manifund regrantor. Meanwhile, Jenn has authored a blog post about non-EA charities that has significantly shaped how I think about nonprofit work, runs an awesome meetup in Waterloo, and on the side maintains this great database of ACX book reviews. (seriously, that alone is worth the price of admission)
I only have a layman's understanding of policy, economics or academia (and am slightly bearish on the theory of change behind "publish in top journals") but I robustly trust Zvi and Jenn to figure out what the right way to move forward with this.
🐷
Aaron Lehmann
8 months ago
A big +1 for @Austin's comments here. Zvi is a very thoughful and prolific writer with an intense focus on identifying problems in the world and thinking through ways to mitigate them. It's exciting to see him put some of these thoughts into practice and I'm optimistic about what he'll be able to accomplish.