Also, tracking meetup history, organizers, and expenses transparently here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-SoY03bQBqtWG7kBgVqdrheY2RuEmdCgFDXRv7x-N8w/edit
@Dglid
Forecasting meetup organizer and prediction market enthusiast
https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidglidden/$50 in pending offers
I'm a forecasting enthusiast, effective altruist, and operations management professional at a technology consulting firm. I've volunteered at Effective Altruism Global and am a prediction market trader and creator on Manifold, a forecaster on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open, and a trader on PredictIt. Proud resident of Washington, DC.
David Glidden
4 days ago
Also, tracking meetup history, organizers, and expenses transparently here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-SoY03bQBqtWG7kBgVqdrheY2RuEmdCgFDXRv7x-N8w/edit
David Glidden
4 days ago
Thanks for the support EA community! We welcome continued funding.
We raised $657 through the EA Community Choice funding round.
We booked a venue and scheduled our first meetup - we already have over 21 RSVPs with over a week to go!: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw
RSVPs have come from marketing efforts through the Forecasting Newsletter substack, EA DC newsletter, and various EA and forecasting Slack groups and Discord servers. The event page asks attendees where they heard about us when they RSVP, so we'll have some data to know our most effective marketing channels.
We set up a website/mailing list to keep the momentum and attendance for future meetups: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork
We recorded a podcast episode of Star Spangled Gamblers talking about this project that will be published in the next week or so.
David attended 1 rationality meetup and plans to attend another where he's recruiting attendees for the September forecasting forecasting meetup.
Continue marketing the event through additional channels.
Host the inaugural September meetup on the 26th and schedule an October meetup.
Publish SSG podcast episode.
For our first meetup, we chose a venue that will give us a semi-private space for free, but being a bar it may not be the most conducive to facilitating conversation. We also will not be sponsoring food for this inaugural event. Additional funding will help us secure more private spaces in the future and/or sponsor food for attendees.
David Glidden
6 days ago
@lucas just stumbled upon something that might be relevant: https://www.safe.ai/blog/forecasting (see "News stories." section)
David Glidden
25 days ago
The world needs to better understand the importance of calibration - let's help it go mainstream!
David Glidden
25 days ago
Love the creativity and lots of swings at bat for tools that I'm likely to find useful.
David Glidden
25 days ago
Donating to this because I had a similar idea myself, https://thepredictionpost.substack.com/, that I've since discontinued. Love the data and infrastructure angle of this project though. Best of luck! 💪
David Glidden
26 days ago
@TonyGao Fair point. I'm very willing to reevaluate the strategy after this first pilot in DC (of which any funds within the funding goal from this EA Community Choice round would exclusively go).
That said, I'd argue that the same question could be asked of EA meetups - there are specific places where EA might make an outsized impact but I'd argue that doesn't negate the benefit of having EA meetups in many different communities, as a way of potentially creating a surround-sound effect for the movement that exponentially increases awareness and the perception of traction.
I also think there will be diminishing returns for funding in a single city, and a low cost but meaningful reward for spinning up meetups in other cities, as much of the operational challenge simply has to do with finding organizers who live in those cities and funding the minimum necessary to give any individual meetup a baseline level of attraction to draw sufficient attendees.
David Glidden
6 months ago
Love this. Tried something similar at thepredictionpost.substack.com and got good feedback, just didn’t have the time to continue it.
For | Date | Type | Amount |
---|---|---|---|
Play money prediction markets | 1 day ago | project donation | 50 |
Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions | 3 days ago | project donation | 20 |
Manifund Bank | 4 days ago | withdraw | 657 |
Adjacent News | 5 days ago | project donation | 141 |
Calibration City | 5 days ago | project donation | 20 |
Forecasting Meetup Network - Washington, DC pilot (4 meetups) | 5 days ago | project donation | +30 |
Forecasting Meetup Network - Washington, DC pilot (4 meetups) | 5 days ago | project donation | +20 |
Forecasting Meetup Network - Washington, DC pilot (4 meetups) | 5 days ago | project donation | +500 |
Forecasting Meetup Network - Washington, DC pilot (4 meetups) | 5 days ago | project donation | +26 |
Forecasting Meetup Network - Washington, DC pilot (4 meetups) | 5 days ago | project donation | +31 |
Forecasting Meetup Network - Washington, DC pilot (4 meetups) | 5 days ago | project donation | +50 |
Manifund Bank | 28 days ago | deposit | +300 |