What is the case for impact for this? At a glance my guess is it would increase x-risk—a better explanation of AI accelerating AI R&D would (marginally) make people want to do that more, which shortens timelines / increases the probability of a fast takeoff.

Actually the link worked fine when I pasted it into Discord, it just didn't work in my browser

@PauseAI-US The discord link says "invite invalid" for me

As a donor, how should I think about whether to donate to PauseAI Global vs. PauseAI US? I would like both to have more money but I only have limited budget. Ideally I would donate to a unified org and you can then spend the money where it's most needed, but I assume you can't do that because PauseAI Global and PauseAI US are legally separate entities.

Right now I'm thinking PauseAI US has the advantage that most big AI companies are headquartered in the US, so protests and lobbying here should be more impactful.

I still have questions but I will resume this discussion on the new post so it's more visible

@Holly_Elmore I'm not sure I understand. Are they the same org structure but different legal entities? Does PauseAI operate outside the US? The website doesn't seem to make a distinction between PauseAI and PauseAI US.

@Holly_Elmore How is that proposal different from this one? https://manifund.org/projects/pauseai-local-communities---volunteer-stipends

How do you plan on finding an audience? (Sounds like MTurk or something?) And how do you determine which messages are more successful than others?

I chose to donate through Manifund instead of directly to PauseAI, even though it was kind of a pain, because I believe Manifund is providing a useful service. The grant requests that orgs submit through Manifund tend to have valuable information that 's not included on their websites or in fundraising materials. Manifund is doing a good job of eliciting decision-relevant info that I can't get elsewhere.

Attempting to build AGI is a bad idea because it increases extinction risk. I would strongly recommend against funding this.

What are the main features PlayMoney has that Manifold lacks?

Public advocacy seems likely to be the best thing on the margin to prevent extinction.

• Technical alignment research is (a) less neglected and (b) unlikely to solve alignment in time.

• Well-done advocacy directed at policymakers is possibly better, but it's unclear what efforts are most useful, and it's less neglected.

• PauseAI is the only game in town for public advocacy. At this point I think it's too early to say if they're doing a good job, but I think it's a good EV bet.

@Holly_Elmore When do you expect the new project to be up? I want to donate, ideally before Manifund's EA Community Choice ends on Sept 3. (I also intend to donate some non-Community Choice money but that can wait.)

This was a high quality writeup. Previously I was unsure about the impact of Lightcone but this writeup persuaded me that Lightcone is probably upstream of a significant amount of useful AI safety work.

I'm not convinced that Lightcone is the best marginal use of my donations. I may donate more in the future if I become convinced. For now, I'm donating $100 as a vote of confidence.